I've heard there is a weak El Nino system forming that will affect most of the U.S. I kind of welcome this, since it brings milder winters and a little more winter rain. We're still in a drought even after a great monsoon season, so I say bring it on!
It happens when the ocean temperatures and air pressure fluctuate. Gosh, I can't explain it better, sorry! All I know is that in my area, southern AZ, it brings rain. But I heard now they are saying it isn't forming.