I do think anything that sits outside of the pond runs the risk of freezing. Your waterfall really depends on the volume of water that flows through it. Our waterfall flows all winter, but we pump 10,000 gallons per hour over a three foot waterfall on a 4000 gallon system. The waterfall completely ices over but the water never stops flowing underneath.
But every set up is so different it's hard to say. I think every ponder stresses over their first few winters. You have very little water volume to work with so like you, i would be very concerned about your fish. If you have a way to move the fish indoors - even a basement or garage - and do a temporary indoor set up, I think you could better guarantee their survival over the winter. You could maybe even use your same filter set up and some air stones in a stock tank and they'd have a much better chance at making it to spring... and your new pond! Haha! We LOVE encouraging bigger ponds!