I think you guys just saved my butt (and my pond and my fish).
I am 95% sure the GFCI was tripped.
To be honest, I didn't even realize those outlets were GFCI. First of all, you practically have to stand on your head to get a good look at them inside the outlet box (the heavy boxy cover over them can only be lifted about 90 degrees, and it's barely at knee height, so it involved kneeling in snow and almost laying on my side to get a good look with a flashlight... not to mention trying to push aside scratchy shrubbery).
Also, the Test and Reset buttons are really tiny, square, and are the same beige color as the outlet--they are not like the red/black ones or the rectangle ones I have seen on other GFCIs. I am willing to bet that when I was struggling last night to get that deicer plugged back in, I hit the Test button with one of the prongs. (Or maybe even last week... that might explain why one of the old high-power deicers and the 100 watt one did absolutely nothing.)
I hit Reset, plugged the deicer back in, and it appears to be working. I had poured a bucket of hot water by the skimmer box to loosen up the heater, and that thawed area has not re-frozen at all in the past 2 hours since I went out there to check things out.
So... thank you, thank you, THANK YOU.
I didn't even think about looking for GFCIs on those outlets until it was brought up. We have a sub-zero night ahead of us tonight and I would have probably had a mess on my hands tomorrow morning.

To be honest, I didn't even realize those outlets were GFCI. First of all, you practically have to stand on your head to get a good look at them inside the outlet box (the heavy boxy cover over them can only be lifted about 90 degrees, and it's barely at knee height, so it involved kneeling in snow and almost laying on my side to get a good look with a flashlight... not to mention trying to push aside scratchy shrubbery).
Also, the Test and Reset buttons are really tiny, square, and are the same beige color as the outlet--they are not like the red/black ones or the rectangle ones I have seen on other GFCIs. I am willing to bet that when I was struggling last night to get that deicer plugged back in, I hit the Test button with one of the prongs. (Or maybe even last week... that might explain why one of the old high-power deicers and the 100 watt one did absolutely nothing.)
I hit Reset, plugged the deicer back in, and it appears to be working. I had poured a bucket of hot water by the skimmer box to loosen up the heater, and that thawed area has not re-frozen at all in the past 2 hours since I went out there to check things out.
So... thank you, thank you, THANK YOU.